InfraMosaic Research · Humanoid Intelligence desk

Insights — Humanoid Intelligence

Asset-level analysis of the humanoid-robotics value chain — the bill of materials, the mechanical chokepoints, the deployment wave, China's grip and the cost-down curve. Each figure resolves to hash-chained evidence in the Publication Ledger.

6 insights 255 companies tracked $40.7tn live market cap v1.0 methodology
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6 insights · June 2026
Bill of materials

Sensors, not actuators, are humanoid robotics' #1 cost — at 37% of the bill of materials

The single largest line in a humanoid's ~$55,000 material BOM is sensing — ahead of motors and screws at 20% each. The six-axis force-torque sensor that tops the cost stack is also the tightest 2030 bottleneck, at 440% of assessed capacity. The number was hiding in Morgan Stanley's own exhibit.

InfraMosaic Research 15 Jun 2026
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Market structure

The humanoid "Brain" is now 79.5% of a $40.7 trillion universe — and almost none of that value is a humanoid bet

The AI/memory super-cycle repriced the Brain — NVIDIA ~$4.97tn, Micron ~$1.1tn, SK Hynix ~$1.0tn. The Brain is 79.5% of the universe but its humanoid optionality is a rounding error. The genuinely humanoid-levered return sits in the small/mid Body names.

InfraMosaic Research 15 Jun 2026
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Supply-chain risk

China's grip on humanoid robotics isn't broad — it's surgical.

By company count China holds 40.4% of the value chain. By irreplaceable part it holds the whole thing: ~100% of rare-earth sintered magnets, and an export-control lever sitting precisely on the three nodes a humanoid cannot move without — magnets, reducers and roller screws.

InfraMosaic Research 15 Jun 2026
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Supply / demand

Roller screws, not chips, are the humanoid ramp's tightest mechanical chokepoint — demand runs to 770% of 2030 capacity

In InfraMosaic's supply/demand order book, planetary roller screws run to ~770% of assessed 2030 capacity — the single tightest mechanical node in the humanoid value chain. Integrated actuators sit at ~385%, six-axis force-torque sensors at ~440%. China holds the cost-down template.

InfraMosaic Research 13 Jun 2026
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Deployment

Deployment has started: 122,302 humanoid units are now on order or on the floor

Across 26 tracked programs, the world's automakers, logistics giants and Chinese pure-plays have moved humanoids off the keynote stage and onto the payroll — Figure→BMW, Apptronik→Mercedes, Agility→GXO. The transition Morgan Stanley could only sketch as a forecast is now a counted number.

InfraMosaic Research 13 Jun 2026
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Cost index · IHCI

A Western humanoid robot fell from ~$200k to ~$95k in 18 months — the cost-down curve that flips "too expensive"

The InfraMosaic Humanoid Cost Index now reads 47.3 for a Western reference robot and 65.0 for China — a ~53% Western cost-down in 18 months. The objection that anchored every bear case is weakening on schedule, and the bill of materials shows exactly where the next leg comes from.

InfraMosaic Research 13 Jun 2026
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Every figure resolves to evidence.

InfraMosaic Insights are written off the live database, not around it. The market caps, the bill of materials, the supply/demand order book and the cost index all trace to hash-chained entries in the Publication Ledger — and to the live dashboard you can open and query yourself.